Adjusting yeast quantity for overnight shaped refrigerator proof to avoid overproofing

I don't have a direct answer to your question, but I can tell you what works for me (and I'm in the same boat with you).

For commercial yeasted breads which rise very quickly, I do the first rise (the bulk) on the counter for about an hour to an hour and a half, depending on temperature. I punch down, cover and retire to the fridge overnight. The next morning, I allow it to come to a reasonable temperature to work with and shape the dough. After working with it to do the shaping, it is now fairly close to room temperature, so I allow the shape to final proof and into the oven with it. No yeast adjustment is necessary. The only thing you need to do is take a little time off of the bulk fermentation on the counter, if anything, maybe 15-30 mins less.

For sourdoughs, I usually do the bulk on the counter as well. I use small amounts of a firm starter to begin with, so the bulk fermentation is going to take a good 8 or more hours on the counter. I then shape. Why? Well, most of my sourdoughs are rather hydrated and require support during final proof, ie., a banneton or similar. I retire the banneton to the fridge at that point. Since plastic wrap will not stick to or seal my bannetons, I enclose them in oven bags. I remove from the fridge the next morning, throw them in a cold oven for about an hour, then to the counter for 1 to 3 more hours depending on temp, then turn out to my baking surface and into the oven. Whether or not I final on the counter right after bulk, or refrigerate the final, the yeast amount remains the same.

Expect a few surprises, if not flat out failures, while you experiment with your most trusted recipes. It's all part of it... : )

- Keith

In his book, Advanced Bread and Pastry, Michel Suas gives the following amounts of yeast to put in poolish for the desired fermentation time (of the poolish).  They are just meant to be starting points.  Also, I realize you're asking about amount of yeast in the final dough, but maybe this will give an idea of where to begin experimenting.  Percentages are weight of yeast as percentage of flour weight.

3 hours: 1.5%; 7-8 hours: 0.7%; 12-15 hours: 0.1%.  He says these guidelines are for starting water temp of 60 and room temp of 80-85 but I find 0.1% works well for me overnight (12-15 hrs.) when temps range from 60-70.

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For refrigerating overnight maybe Reinhart's Sicilian bread gives a good indication.  He has about 0.75% instant yeast in the total dough and tells the baker to refrigerate overnight.  This formula has worked well for me.  I don't know if the prefermented dough it contains makes it ferment faster in the fridge...??